Modelling Project II

MODELING PROBLEM II

The project will consist of the following:

I. Proposal and Preparation

A. Identify the system which you plan to model. Specify what it is you wish to predict or explain (dependent variable). Develop hypotheses about the variables or factors which you feel are related to the dependent variable.

B. Express your hypothesis in the form of a multiple regression model. The model must have three or more independent variables.

C. Read pages 168-171 on Sources of Data.

D. Turn in Modeling Problem II Proposal found on pages 165-166 to your instructor. Include survey questionnaire if you are planning a survey.

E. Your proposal should be approved by your instructor before continuing.

II. Collect data on your dependent variable, y, and your independent variables, xj. Data must be documented fully. A standard reference is adequate for data catalogued in the library. If the data is obtained from a non-catalogued source (such as newspapers or magazines), it must be xeroxed and included with your paper. If you are using time series data, you should use the most recent data available. You may conduct a survey if you wish. However, you must obtain responses from at least 60 individuals. Be sure to include the 60 completed questionnaires with your paper. The questionnaire used in interviewing respondents should by typed.

III.Run the regression model on the computer using SPSS.

IV. Write up the project in a paper using the format below. This format is similar to that for
the Modeling Project 1 write-up although Part 1 is expanded in order for you to more
carefully explain your model, data collection procedures, and the model's hypothesized relationships.

Modeling Project II Write-Up

Part 1: Introduction and Summary

1) Specify what you wish to predict or explain (dependent variable) and those factors which you will use do the explaining (independent variables):

discuss the theoretical relationships between the dependent and independent variables;

discuss the purpose of estimating the model's relationships.

2) Present the original population model:

define all terms and take care to specify units of measure for each variable;

note the expected signs of the coefficients for those variables for which you have a priori notions of the sign of the xj-y relationships;

state the data sources for each variable and note any difficulties you had obtaining the data and your techniques to overcome them;

state associated sample equation with numerical coefficients.

3) Present revised population model (if any):

define all terms;

discuss why this model is estimated;

state associated sample question with numerical coefficients.

4) Summarize the conclusions regarding the model(s) you have estimated:

discuss the usefulness of your model as a prediction tool;

suggest an alternative model for further study.

Part 2: Body

5) Write the sample model for the first computer run with numerical coefficients.

6) State the assumptions and conditions made to use the model(s).

7) Evaluate the assumptions/conditions which you can from the computer printout:

i) (severe) multicollinearity (from correlation matrix);

ii) autocorrelation (from d-test, take care to note if this test is relevant for this model estimated);

iii) heteroscedasticity (from X2 test).

Suppose these assumptions/conditions had not been met and state the consequences.

8) Evaluate the overall model (f-test).

9) Evaluate the goodness of fit of the model to the data (report and interpret R2 and adjusted R2.

10) Interpret each regression coefficient (a, b1, ..., bm).

11) Which of the independent variables is significantly related to the dependent variable (t-test on regression coefficients). Note any coefficients which have the wrong sign based upon your a priori knowledge of the model's relationships. (Insignificant and wrong-signed variables are to be omitted in the second computer run.

12) Write the revised sample regression model for the second computer run with numerical coefficients.

13) Contrast the goodness of fit of the second model with the first (compare R2 and adjusted R2 of the two models).

14) Interpret the regression coefficients and state why they change in value.
Modeling Problem II Proposal
Name:

A. Title of Project

B. (1) Are you trying to explain cross-sectional or time series variations in the dependent variable?

(2) What is your unit of observation? (That is, years, people, etc.)

(3) What is your sample size?

C. Definition of variables: Write out your hypothesized population regression model.

(1) a. Define dependent variable:

b. In what units is it measured?

c. Where will you obtain data on this variable?

(2) a. Define your first independent variable.

b. In what units is it measured?

c. What sign do you expect its coefficients to have?

d. Briefly explain why you think it affects y in the way stated.

e. Where will you obtain data on this variable?

(3) a. Define your second independent variable.

(4) a. Define your third independent variable.

c.

d.

(5) a. Define your fourth independent variable.

b.

c.

(6) a. Define your fifth independent variable.

(7) a. Define your sixth independent variable.

c.

d.

e.

ECONOMICS 3992 STATISTICAL RESEARCH: FLOWCHART

Follow steps outlined below for each subject for which you need data. See Core List for call numbers and locations of recommended research tools. IGNORE CALL NUMBERS AND LOCATIONS

1. Specify the
data you need.

2. Do any titles
on Core List or Yes
Extended List Use call # given
appear likely to
have the data? Do works have Write down title,
see pp. 168-182 the data you Yes data, page.
need? Return to Step 1.

No
No

Need Need
cross section time series

3. Do County and 3. Does Statis-
City Data Book or tical Abstract Use Historical
State and Metrop- have data, or Use earlier Statistics for
olitan Area Data lead to a source Yes editions to find pre-1971 data.
Book have the data? which does? data back to 1971 (see handout)
(see handout) (see handout) Return to Step 1.

No No

4. Do ASI or SRI
lead to sources Do any of these
likely to have the Yes publications Yes Write down title,
data? have the data data, page.
(see handout) you need? Return to Step 1.

No No

5. Does libraian
have any ideas for Yes Did her/his Yes Write down title,
finding the data? suggestions lead date, page.
to the data?
Return to Step 1.

6. Discuss your
situation with your
instructor.
SOURCES FOR STATISTICAL DATA

CORE LIST

The 22 works described below provide the best and the broadest coverage for use in completing Modeling Problem II. Consulting 1 or more of these titles should be the first step in your search for the data you need for your model. Additional titles are given in the Extended List (pp. 177-186), should not find appropriate data in any of the titles on the Core List. Note that for some titles, Superintendent of Documents call numbers (used by the Documents Library) are given as well as Dewey call numbers.

This Core List is arranged under several broad subject areas. The Extended List is organized by call number, but a subject index follows on page 186. The location codes, given in parentheses on both lists, are standard LCS codes. If you have difficulty in finding any item, consult a librarian.

Location codes:

CRR: Commerce Library, Reference Section
CRRes: Commerce Library, Reserve Section
DOC: Documents Library
ENR: Engineering Library, Reference Section
UGC: Undergraduate Library, Closed Reference Section
REX: Main Library, Reference Section
UGR: Undergraduate Library, Reference Section

GENERAL SOURCES

317.3 U.S. Bureau of the Census. County and City Data Book.
Un3co Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, quinquennial.
(CRRes,REX, This is a supplement to the Statistical Abstract of the U.S. It gives a wide
UGR variety of demographic, social, and economic statistics for regions, divisions, states, counties and SMSAs.
DOC.C3.134+2: This is a good source for cross-sectional statistics.
C83+2+

q.317.3 U.S. Bureau of the Census. Historical Statistics of the United States:
Un315hi Colonial Times to 1970. 2 Vols. Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office,
1976 1975.
(REX,CRRes, This source contains a wide range of historical statistics for the United
UGR) States. Economic, political, social, and demographic data are given. Many tables correspond with tables in the Statistical Abstract which provides data
DOC.C3.134+2: for years after 1970.
H62+789-970+
(DOC)

317.3 U.S. Bureau of the Census. State and Metropolitan Area Data Book, 1982.
St29 Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, 1982.
(REX,UGR) Presents data on a wide variety of social and economic topics for metropolitan
areas, cities, states and regions. Good source for cross-sectional statistics.
DOC.C3.134+5:
(DOC)

317 U.S. Bureau of the Census. Statistical Abstract of the United States.
Un3s Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, annual.
(CRRes,REX, "Standard summary of statistics on the social, political, and
UGR) economic organization of the U.S." Data given is primarily on the national level, but some tables include state and SMSA information.
DOC.C3.134:
(DOC)

353.9 Council of State Governments. The Book of the States. Lexington, KY.: The
B644 Council, biennial.
(DOC,REX, Provides data on state finances, state services such as education,
UGR) transportation and welfare, and state economics and natural resources for all of the 50 states. A useful source of cross-sectional statistics.

SOURCES OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DATA

330.9 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Main Economic
Or14m Indicators: Historical Statistics. Paris: Organization for Economic Co-
sup. B operation and Development, 1980.
(CRRes) Contains data for all OECD countries for the years 1960 through 1979. Statistics given include GNP, imports, exports, industrial production, stocks, and construction. Data is given quarterly and monthly if appropriate. This source is updated monthly by the OECD Main Economic Indicators (330.90r14m).

336.73 Facts and Figures on Government Finance. New York: Tax Foundation,
T21fa biennial.
(CRRes,REX, Time series data on public finance, taxes, expenditures, and
UGR,DOC) indebtedness at the federal, state, and local government levels.

332.6 Moody's Handbook of Common Stocks. New York: Moody's Investors
M775 Service, quarterly.
(CRR) Each issue contains concise financial statistics and price charts for over 900
common stocks. Data covers a 10-year period.

332.63 Standard and Poor's Corporation. Analyst's Handbook. New York:
St24a Standard and Poor's Corporation, annual.
(CRRes) Gives composite corporate per share data by industries. Also
included is per share data on the S & P 400.

332.6 Standard and Poor's Corporation. Standard and Poor's Statistical Service.
St24tl New York: Standard and Poor's Corporation, monthly with annual
(CRRes) cumulations.
Contains statistics covering banking and finance, production and labor, price
indexes, income and trade, building, electric powers and fuels, metals, transportation, textiles, chemicals, paper products, agricultural products. Last section contains several years of statistics for bond and stock prices, sales, yields and selected ratios.

DOC. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Business Conditions Digest.
C59.9: Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, monthly.
(DOC) Statistical tables at end of each issue provide quarterly and annual as well as
monthly time series data on numerous economic and financial topics. "Series Finding Guide" tells which issues have historical tables in specific subject areas. Use to update tables in Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.

DOC U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
C59.9+3 Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, 1984.
In2+984 An excellent source of time-series statistics on economics, business
(DOC) and financial topics. Most tables provide monthly, quarterly, and annual data
Q.338.54 from 1947-1982. Use Business Conditions Digest for data for 1983-.
Un33h
1984
(CRR)
Q.338.542
B96sup.
(REX)

q.382 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Business Statistics. Washington: U.S.
Un3ds Gov't. Printing Office, irregular.
sup. Excellent source for time series data at the national level on a wide
(CRRes,REX) range of economic subjects, from production and trade of commodities to
general business indicators, prices and employment. 1982 edition has 20
DOC. years of data; use 1979 edition for earlier years.
C59.11+3:
(DOC)

331 U.S. President. Employment and Training Report of the President.
Un363m Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office. Ceased publication in 1982.
(CRRes) Reports on labor force and employment trends and various
DOC. government employment and training programs. Statistical Appendix
L1.42+2: provides numerous time series tables for data on employment and earnings
(DOC) for various population groups, as well as GNP and consumer and producer price indexes.
330.973 U.S. President. Economic Report of the President. Washington: U.S. Gov't.
Un315e Printing Office, annual.
(CRRes,REX) An excellent source for time-series statistics on the United States as a whole. Appendix B includes statistics relating to income, employment, and
DOC. production. The data includes GNP, interest rates, inflation rates, money
PR1.9 stock, composite stock prices and yields, and some important international
(DOC) statistics.

331 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Handbook of Labor Statistics. Washington:
Un342h U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, 1983.
(CRRes,REX, Contains time series statistics on employment and unemployment as
UGR) well as various demographic, social and economic characteristics of persons in the labor force. Also gives some productivity, earnings, and work
DOC. stoppage data.
L2.3+5:
982

SOURCES OF STATISTICS ON SOCIAL TOPICS

q.312 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs.
D396 Statistical Office. Demographic Yearbook. New York: United Nations,
(REX,UGR) annual.
Provides international statistics on population, mortality, marriage and divorce,
plus special topic tables each year. A historical supplement to the 1979 Demographic Yearbook presents related data for the thirty-year time period of 1948-1977.

370.973 National Center for Education Statistics. Digest of Education Statistics.
Un3d Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, annual.
(REX) Annual and time series tables on educational enrollment at all levels, staffing of schools, revenues and expenditures, and other topics. Most data at national
DOC. level; some broken down by region or state.
ED1.113:
(DOC)

DOC. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States.
HE20.6210: Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, annual.
(DOC) Each annual set contains 3 volumes, Natality, Mortality, and Marriage and
Divorce. Offers time series and cross-sectional data on birth rates, causes of death, and characteristics of married and divorced individuals. Time series data is for U.S. only. Cross-sectional data is mostly for states, with some by SMSA. Documents Library has last 30 years of this title.
309.173 U.S. Bureau of the Census. Social Indicators III. Washington: U.S. Gov't.
Un338s Printing Office, 1980.
(CRRes,REX) Massive compendium of data concerning American social conditions. Topics covered include population characteristics, health, education, labor force
DOC. characteristics, and use of leisure time. Detail and time coverage of data vary
C3.2 from table to table.
Si1+2+979
(DOC)

364.44 U.S. Department of Justice. Bureau of Justice Statistics. Sourcebook of
So844 Criminal Justice Statistics. Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, annual.
(REX) Compilation of statistics on crime, the criminal justice and corrections
systems, and public attitudes toward these. All varieties of crimes and police
DOC. and legal activities are included. Most tables provide cross-sectional data for
J29.9 states or cities; a few provide time series.
SD-SB-
(DOC)

364.05 U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation. Uniform Crime Reports for the United
Un States. Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, annual.
(REX) Statistics on numbers and types of crimes, broken down by age, race,
sex and geographic areas. Documents Library has last 30 years of this
DOC series.
J1.14+7:
(DOC)

EXTENDED LIST

INDEXES TO STATISTICAL PUBLICATIONS

016.3173 (1) Statistical Reference Index (SRI). Bethesda, MD: Congressional Information
St2 Service, monthly with annual cumulations.
(DOC) "A selective guide to American statistical publications from private organizations and state government resources." Covers all subject fields and
Index publication formats. Organization and use identical to ASI (see below). Most
Table indexed items are available on microfiche in Documents Library.

317.3 (2) American Statistics Index (ASI). Bethesda, MD: Congressional Information
Am33 Service, monthly with annual cumulations.
sup. "Master guide and index to all the statistical publications of the U.S.
(DOC) Government." Covers all subject fields and publication formats. Index volume contains a subject index and indexes by geographic, economic, and
Index demographic categories. Abstracts Volume provides descriptions of
Table publications and their contents. Many indexed items are available in Documents Library.

OTHER SOURCES PROVIDING TIME SERIES AND CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA

310 (3) Banks, Arthur S. Cross-polity Time-series Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press,
B226c 1971.
(CRR) Most material covers 1900-1966, excluding two major wartime periods, 1914-1918 and 1940-1945. All commonly recognized members of the international community are included in the 10 segments, covering a wide variety of subjects.

MICROFICHE (4) Current National Statistical Compendiums. Washington: Congressional 310Information Service, irregular.
C93 A microfiche collection of statistical publications and yearbooks of over
(REX) 100 countries.

NOTE: Paper copies of statistical yearbooks for many countries of the world are also available in the Reference Room and the Commerce Library in the 314-319 call number range.

310 (5) Information Please Almanac. New York: Simon and Schuster, annual.
In3 Includes statistics on a wide variety of U.S. and international topics.
(REX,UGC) Many tables have time series data.

310 (6) United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs.
Un3s Statistical Office. Statistical Yearbook. New York: United Nations, annual.
(CRR,REX) Internationally comparable economic and social statistics are given at world, regional, and national levels. Tables cover various lengths of time.

314 (7) Mitchell, Brian R. European Historical Statistics, 1750-1975. 2d rev. ed. New
M69e York: Facts on File, 1981.
1981 In a topical arrangement, statistics on climate, population, labor force,
(REX) agriculture, industry, external trade, transport, communications, finance, prices, education and national accounts are given for European countries. Tables cover long time spans.

315 (8) Mitchell, Brian R. International Historical Statistics: Africa and Asia. New
M69i York: New York University Press, 1982.
1982 A companion volume to European Historical Statistics 1750-1975, this
(CRR,REX) work presents social and economic time series data for African and Asian countries. Coverage ends with 1975.

317 (9) Mitchell, Brian R. International Historical Statistics: The Americas and
M692i Australasia. Detroit: Gale Research, 1983.
1983 This volume includes social and economic time series data for North,
(REX) South and Central American countries, Australia and New Zealand. A companion volume to International Historical Statistics: Africa and Asia.
317.3 (10) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Long term Economic Growth, 1860-1970.
Un3o Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, 1973.
(CRRes, DOC) See especially appendix 3, "Basic Data", p. 181. Here are included time series tables on GNP, employment, finance, production and other important U.S. historical statistics.

324.73 (11) Scammon, Richard M., ed. and comp. America Votes: A Handbook of
Am38 Contemporary American Election Statistics. 14 Vols. [place and publisher
(REX,UGR) vary]. Washington: Congressional Quarterly, [1956]-1981.
Volumes include voting statistics for presidential elections from 1948 through 1980 and for U.S. congressional elections and state government elections since 1945.

324.973 (12) Presidential Elections Since 1789. 3rd edition. Washington: Congressional
C76p Quarterly, 1983.
1983 A statistical record of the vote for president and vice-president through the
(REX) 1980 election.

330.5 (13) United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs.
MONB2 Statistical Office. Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. [Vol. 1, January 1947- ].
(REX) Tables of international economic statistics with time series of varying lengths.
Includes some monthly data.

330.9 (14) U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. Handbook of Economic Statistics.
Un315h Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, annual.
(CRR,DOC) Provides statistics on a variety of economic, financial, agricultural, and industrial topics for Communist countries and selected "non-Communist" countries. Data are adjusted to facilitate cross-sectional comparison.

q.331 (15) International Labour Office. Yearbook of Labor statistics. Geneva:
In831y International Labour Organization, annual.
(REX) Statistics for many countries on employment, unemployment, wages,
consumer prices, occupational injuries and industrial disputes are included. Supplemented quarterly by the Bulletin of Labour Statistics (331In83b).

331 (16) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly Labor Review. Washington: U.S.
Un342m Gov't. Printing Office, monthly.
(CRR) Provides current statistics covering employment, earnings, consumer and
producer prices, productivity, work stoppages, and wage and compensation
DOC. L2.6 data.
(DOC)
q.331.112 (17) Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Labour Force
Or35m Statistics. Paris: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development,
(CRR) annual.
Split into 2 sections, this source first gives main aggregates from 1967-1980. Also in this part are graphs showing data from 1961. The second section contains figures by country referring to the period 1960-1980. This source is updated by the Labour Force Statistics, Quarterly Supplement, also published by the OECD (331.112Or35m sup.).

332.05 (18) U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve
UNF Bulletin. Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, monthly.
(CRR) Provides monetary statistics such as prices, labor market, construction and national income. Presents the Federal Reserve Board's index of industrial
DOC.FR1.3: production.
(DOC)

332.1 (19) U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Banking and
Un32ba Monetary Statistics. Washington: National Capital Press, 1943.
(CRR)

332.1 U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Banking and
Un32ba Monetary Statistics, 1941-1970. Washington: Board of Governors of the
1976 Federal Reserve System, 1976.
(CRRes)

DOC.
FR1.3+2:
941-970
(DOC)

332.1 U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Annual Statistical
Un32as Digest, 1970-1979. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
(CRR) System, 1981

DOC.
FR1.3+1:
970-79
(DOC)

332.1 U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Annual Statistical
Un32as Digest. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
(CRR) annual.

DOC.
FR1.3+1:
(DOC)

These four volumes together give a wide variety of time series data on any type of banking or monetary statistics. Included are statistics on banks in the United States, money supply, currency in circulation, money rates, security markets, U.S. government debt, gold, consumer credit, and some international financial statistics. These volumes are updated monthly by the Federal Reserve Bulletin which is also put out by the Board of Governors (see #17).

332.15 (20) International Monetary Fund. Bureau of Statistics. International Financial
Un85ia Statistics Yearbook.
(CRR) This is a very good source for the financial statistics of many countries starting with data from 1952. Information on exchange rates, international liquidity, bank assets, interest rates, prices, production, and imports and exports are given. This yearbook is updated monthly by the publication International Financial Statistics (332.15In85i).

332.64 (21) Pierce, Phyllis S., ed. The Dow Jones Averages 1885-1980. Homewood, IL:
D752 Dow Jones - Irwin, 1982.
(CRRes,REX) Contains daily Dow Jones averages for the industrials, the railroads
(transportation), and the utilities since 1885. Since 1928, it has high, low, and closing prices. Also includes daily sales and the Dow Jones bond averages.

332.8 (22) Homer, Sidney. A History of Interest Rates. 2nd edition. New Brunswick,
H75h New Jersey: Rutgers University Press, 1977.
1977 This contains a complete history of interest rates for the United States
(CRRes) as well as for other countries. Included are rates on securities, bonds, real estate, and other types of issues since, in some cases, the beginning of recorded history.

336 (23) International Monetary Fund. Bureau of Statistics. Government Finance
In82g Statistics Yearbook. Washington: International Monetary Fund, annual.
(CRR) This source gives coverage on 124 countries and includes information on units of government and the accounts through which governments work; 10 years of data on government operations and expenditures is given for all countries when possible.

338 (24) Emery, Walter L., ed. Commodity Yearbook. New york: Commodity
C73 Research Bureau, annual.
(CRRes,REX) Time series statistics from public and private sources on production, prices and trade of food and goods. Supplemented three times a year by Commodity Yearbook Statistical Abstract Service (same call number).

338.1 (25) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. FAO Production
P9451 Yearbook. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,
(REX) annual.
Provides international statistics on crop production and livestock products. Previous title: Production Yearbook (338.1P945).
338.2 (26) American Metal Market. Metal Statistics. New York: Fairchild Publications,
M564 annual.
(ENR) Contains data on all types of metals including for each production, consumption, and price information. Each annual volume contains several years of data.

338.27 (27) Twentieth Century Petroleum Statistics. Dallas: De Golyer and
T91 MacNaughton, annual.
(CRRes, ENR) Provides large range of worldwide statistics and charts arranged by country. Coverage includes oil production, reserves, demand, and refining capacity.

338.4 (28) Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Industrial
Or14indu Production: Historical Statistics. Paris: Organization for Economic Co-
(CRR) operation and Development, 1976.
This source complements the Main Economic Indicators published by the OECD. It contains for member countries data relating to all aspects of industrial production. The data is given quarterly and monthly if appropriate. There is a supplementary volume to this which includes data left out of the original publication. [338.40r14indu sup. (CRR)].

388.4 (29) United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs.
Un27g Statistical Office. Yearbook of Industrial Statistics. 2 vols. New York: United
(CRR) Nations, annual.
The first volume of this series contains basic data on industrial production for each member country or area and a selection of indicators showing global and regional trends in industrial activity. Volume II contains detailed time series data on world production of industrial commodities.

338.5 (30) Predicasts. Basebook. Cleveland: Predicasts, annual.
B29 Each volume covers approximately 12 years of data. Arranged by
(CRR) Standard Industrial Classification, this source gives statistical data on all types of products and industries. Also included, at the beginning of the volumes, are statistical data on general economic and demographic indicators such as population, marriages, deaths, and income.

338.7 (31) Edison Electric Institute. Statistical Yearbook of the Electric Utility Industry.
Ed42e New York: Edison Electric Institute, annual.
(ENR) Gives data dealing with the electrical utility industry. Updates the Historical Statistics volume (below).

338.7 (32) Edison Electric Institute. Historical Statistics of the Electric Utility Industry
Ed42h Through 1970. New York: Edison Electric Institute, [1971].
(CRR) This contains historical data, some tables starting in 1920, on all aspects of the electric utility industry such as generating capacity, electric power and energy resources, sales, and revenues. For data after 1970 see above title.
339.3 (33) Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. National
Or3n Accounts Statistics. 2 vols. Paris: Organization for Economic Co-operation
(CRR,REX) and Development, annual.
Main aggregates are given for each OECD country for the period 1950-1979. Volume 2 contains detailed national account statistics for each member country.

339.3 (34) United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs.
Un2y Statistical office. Yearbook of National Accounts Statistics. 2 vols. New
(CRR,REX) York: United Nations, annual.
Includes detailed national account statistics for approximately 155 countries for the period 1968-1979. Length of time series varies from table to table.

370 (35) United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. Statistics
Un35s Yearbook. Paris: United National Educational, Scientific and Cultural
(REX,UGR) Organization, annual.
Provides data on education, science and technology, and cultural activities for
about 200 countries.

382 (36) International Monetary Fund. Bureau of Statistics. Direction of Trade
In875dal Statistics Yearbook . Washington: International Monetary Fund, annual.
(CRR) This volume gives data on the "distribution by trade partners of total exports and imports of 154 countries, as well as area and world aggregates showing trade flows among major areas of the world." Each year's issue covers seven years of data.

382 (37) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. FAO Trade
T6751 Yearbook. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,
(REX) annual.
Agricultural and aggregate food product statistics are presented in tables arranged by trade index numbers, commodities, and countries. Previous title: Trade Yearbook (382T675).

Q.382 (38) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Survey of Current Business.
Un3ds Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, monthly.
(CRR) Provides current business statistics in numerous areas such as foreign trade of the U.S., petroleum, electric power and gas, labor force, etc.
DOC Historical data is available in its biennial supplement Business Statistics,
C59.11: Q.382Un3ds sup. (see Core List).
(DOC)

382 (39) United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs.
Un17y Statistical Office. Yearbook on International Trade Statistics. 2 vols. New
(REX) York: United Nations, annual.
Detailed trade data for individual countries and world trade statistics for specific commodities.
614.1 (40) World Health Organization. World Health Statistics Annual. 3 vols. Geneva:
W893s World Health Organization, annual.
(REX) This publication ". . . provides data on Vital Statistics and Causes of Death,
Cases of Infectious Diseases and Health Personnel and Hospital Establishments." Covers many countries. Time series statistics may be gathered from volumes of previous years.

NOTE: Many books in the Documents Library have been shelved according to the Superintendent of Documents Classification System (SuDocs). SuDocs classifies documents according to the government agency which issues the document: e.g. call numbers for Department of Labor publications begin with L; call numbers for Department of Commerce publications begin with C. Government documents are thus shelved alphabetically by issuing agency. They are then shelved in numerical order according to the number which follows the agency letter. Some older documents still have Dewey Decimal Classification numbers. Thus there are two sets of shelves in the Documents Library--Dewey and SuDocs. Ask for assistance form the library staff if you have difficulty finding a government document.

DOC. (41) U.S. Department of Agriculture. Food Consumption, Prices, and
A1.34: Expenditures, 1960-1980. Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, 1981.
672 Provides 20 years of national data on per capita consumption of various food
(DOC) products. Also gives consumer price indexes (1960-1980) of selected categories of food products. Breakdown of supply services and utilization characteristics for specific commodities are included as well.

DOC. (42) U.S. Department of Agriculture. Agricultural Statistics. Washington: U.S.
A1.47: Gov't. Printing Office, annual.
(DOC) Area, yield, production, export, value and other statistics for all manner of agricultural goods. Also give statistics on various financial aspects of farming. Most tables provide time series; number of years given varies.

DOC. (43) U.S. Bureau of the Census. Current Population Reports.
C3.186: Several series provide annual updates, at the national level primarily,
(DOC) of population characteristics collected in more detail in the decennial census. Subjects covered include income (P-60 series) and family/household characteristics (P-20 series).

DOC. (44) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. State Personal Income: 1929-82.
C59.2: Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, 1984.
In2+4 Gives per capita personal income, disposable personal income and
(DOC) total personal income for states from 1929-1982. Also includes time series data on sources of income and earnings in each state (e.g., farm/nonfarm; manufacturing; services; construction, etc.).
DOC. (45) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The National Income and Product
C59.11+4: Accounts of the United States, 1929-1976: Statistical Tables.
In2+929-76 Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, 1981.
(DOC) Provides time series data on numerous aspects of the U.S. economy, such as gross national product, personal income, industry employment and profits, government receipts and expenditures, and other measures of U.S. economic health. A supplement provides data to 1979 (DOC.C59.11+4:In2+976-979).

DOC. (46) National Center for Education Statistics. The Condition of Education.
ED1.109: Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, annual.
(DOC) Presents statistics on a variety of topics and issues affecting education at all levels. Subjects covered vary from year to year. Time periods for which statistics are presented also vary.

DOC. (47) U.S. Social Security Administration. Social Security Bulletin: Annual
HE3.3+3: Statistical Supplement. Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, annual.
(DOC) Many time series data tables providing data on payments under both social security programs and related social and health programs. Some tables relate social security benefits to other areas such as employment, earnings, and poverty status.

DOC. (48) U.S. National Institute of Education. Higher Education Financing in the Fifty
HE19.202: States. Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, 1979.
F49+3+976 Appendix B contains cross-sectional data for states on amounts and sources of public funds expended for institutions of higher education.

DOC. (49) U.S. National Institute of Education. Tax Wealth in Fifty States. Washington:
HE19.202: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, 1978.
T19 Statistics on tax capacity and tax collected for various types of taxation
(DOC) (e.g. income, property) for the 50 states. Provides cross-sectional rather than time series data.

DOC. (50) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment and Earnings, United States,
L2.3:1312-11 1909-1978. Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, 1979.
(DOC) Includes historical, national data for individual non-agricultural industries. Arrangement is by Standard Industrial Classification Code.

DOC. (51) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment, Hours and Earnings, States
L2.3:1370-17 and Areas 1939-1982. Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, 1984.
(DOC) A companion volume to the above, this provides similar information for all states, the District of Columbia and 272 major areas. Data runs through 1982.
DOC. (52) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics Derived from the
L2.3: Current Population Survey: a Databook. 2 vols. Washington: U.S. Gov't.
2096 Printing Office, 1982.
(DOC) Contains many tables providing detailed demographic data related to
the employment, unemployment, size of the labor force, etc. Income and employment is correlated with sex, age, and racial characteristics of the population.

DOC. (53) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment and Earnings. Washington:
L2.41+2: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, monthly.
(DOC) Provides monthly and quarterly statistics on employment, unemployment, and weekly earnings of persons in the labor force. Presents data for most categories by age, sex, race and marital status. Employment by industry is also given.

DOC. (54) U.S. Federal Highway administration. Highway Statistics, Summary to 1975.
TD2.23: Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, 1977.
(DOC) Annual supplements published under title, Highway Statistics (625.7H54). Provides annual data on topics such as motor vehicle registration, motor fuel consumption, highway finance, highway usage and traffic fatality rates. Most tables have state and national data, but some contain statistics at national level only.

DOC. (55) Economic Indicators. Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office, monthly.
Y4.Ec7: Each issue provides annual and monthly or quarterly data concerning
Ec7+ employment and wages, prices, money supply and interest rates, as well as
(DOC) income and production. Several issues need to be used to locate 30 units of data in any of these areas.

DOC. (56) U.S. House of Representatives. Committee on Interstate and Foreign
Y4.In8+4: Commerce. The Energy Factbook. Washington: U.S. Gov't. Printing Office,
(DOC) 1980.
"Data on energy resources, reserves, production, consumption, prices, processing, and industry structure." Time period covered varies considerably from table to table.

INDEX
Numbers refer to the numbers of titles in the Extended List only.

A. General Sources: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 35
B. Agriculture: 41, 42
C. Economy: 3, 6, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, 30, 38, 44, 45, 55
D. Education: 35, 46, 48
E. Energy: 27, 31, 32, 56
F. Finance: 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 33, 34, 49, 55
G. Labor: 15, 16, 17, 50, 51, 52, 53
H. Politics, Government: 11, 12, 23, 33, 34, 49
I. Productivity and Commodity Data: 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 41, 42
J. Social: 6, 35, 43, 47, 52
K. Trade: 36, 37, 39
L. Transporation: 54
M. Vital and Health Statistics: 40

3.2 MODELLING PROJECT 2 (MP2)

3.2.1 SAS AND THE MP2 ASSIGNMENT. For the MP1 assignment, students are given the following: a) the dependent and independent variables, and by implication, the population model; b) a set of 29 observations on the system with which the student can evaluate the model; and c) a SAS program to analyze this data. In contrast, MP2 is essentially unstructured. Here, the student constructs a regression model of a real world system of interest to him/her. First, the student must decide what is to be explained (i.e., sales of a firm, highway deaths, capital spending in the economy) and the factors which are related to or explain this variable. Next, data must be found to evaluate this hypothesized model. Finally, a SAS program must be written to undertake a statistical analysis of the data.

In order to place this discussion in the context of a specific problem, suppose you are interested in the factors which explain highway deaths. The dependent variable in this case would be highway deaths, expressed in thousands per year. Let us refer to this variable in the SAS program as HDEATH. After researching the problem you hypothesize the following factors explain highway deaths: a) the number of licensed drivers in millions (DRIVE), the number of miles of limited access highway in hundreds of miles (LWAY), expenditure on police enforcement in millions of dollars (POL), whether or not there is a highway speed limit (a dummy variable, HSL), and whether there is a seatbelt requirement (a dummy variable, BELT). After reviewing the section on "Library Sources for Statistical Data" which appears in the Guide to Economic Statistics you find data on each of these variables for the past 40 years.

It will now be necessary to change the SAS program used with MP1 to run this new data. We recommend that you change the MP1 program, rather than attempting to write a new program from scratch. You will see shortly that only a limited number of lines must be changed in that program to accommodate the new data and the new model you wish to analyze.

The first step will be to enter the new data into the file called SASDT INPUT A. Assume you use the following columns (fields) for the variables in the highway deaths example:

Variable Fields:
HDEATH 1-10
DRIVE 11-20
LWAY 21-30
POL 31-40
HSL 41-43
BELT 44-46
Obviously, you cannot enter this data into the file which has the data from MP1. Instead, issue the command ERASE SASDT INPUT A, and then use xedit to create a new file called SASDT INPUT A. This is done with the following two commands:

ERASE SASDT INPUT A
XEDIT SASDT INPUT A

You will now follow the instructions given earlier for entering the new data into this newly created file. Be sure to enter the data in the columns specified by the fields above.

Once the data has been typed into the file, you must now change the SAS program to read the new data, and to construct the required regression model. Most of the lines in this job can be used as printed to build other models. However, lines dealing with input, specification of the model, and plots must be changed. These lines are:

INPUT line (line 5)
MODEL line (line 8)
PLOT lines (lines 17-24)

To change these lines in the SAS program, you must enter the file called SASPRG SAS A using the xedit command:

XEDIT SASPRG SAS A

Assuming that you are now in the SAS program file, we now consider each of these line changes in turn.

3.2.1.1 THE NEW INPUT LINE. The input line must now tell the computer the
columns of SASDT INPUT A which contain each of your variables. To change this line in the program move the cursor to the INPUT line and retype the variables and fields for the MP2 problem. For our example, the INPUT line becomes:

INPUT HDEATH 1-10 DRIVE 11-20 LWAY 21-30 POL 31-40 HSL 41-43 BELT 44-46;

3.3.1.2 THE NEW MODEL LINE(S). To instruct the computer to build a new regression model involving the new variables, you would change the model line to:

MODEL HDEATH=BELT HSL POL LWAY DRIVE/R DW;

As before, the order of the independent variables is not important.

SAS is structured so that one can estimate several regression models on the same run. For example, if you wish to build a regression model involving only the variables DRIVE, LWAY, and POL, then the following model line would be inserted after the one above:

MODEL HDEATH=DRIVE LWAY POL/R DW;

A total of five models can be built on any given run, but there is one limitation in specifying more than one model in a single run. If multiple models are specified, the SASPRG program will only produce a set of plots for the last model specified in the program. Thus, in the present case, if we request plots, they will be run for the model line:

MODEL HDEATH=DRIVE LWAY POL/R DW;

3.2.1.3. THE NEW PLOT LINES. The graphs produced by the PLOT commands are used primarily to look at problems of heteroscedasticity and to spot possible specification errors. These graphs plot the residuals against the independent and dependent variables.

Given the level of computer funds available in ECN 3972 for each student and the high cost of computing and printing, you should only obtain one graph for each of your dependent and independent variables. This means that if you construct a second model where you have added to the variables used in your first run, you should delete the PLOT lines which caused graphs to be printed out for all variables used in your first model. Assume for a minute your first run had only the following "model" line:

MODEL HDEATH=DRIVE LWAY POL/R DW;

and you obtained graphs for all the independent variables. Now if you make a second run with the following model line:

MODEL HDEATH=BELT HSL POL LWAY DRIVE/R DW;

you would only list plot lines for variables not in the first run (i.e., BELT and HSL). Your plot lines in this second run would be:

PROC PLOT;
PLOT RSDULS*BELT='+'/VREF=0.0;
PROC PLOT;
PLOT RSDULS*HSL='+'/VREF=0.0;

These statements will cause residual graphs to be produced for the seatbelt and highway speed limit variables.

Students interested in other refinements in the use of the SAS statistical package should purchase a SAS manual and investigate them at their convenience.

3.2.2 COMPUTER COMMANDS FOR MP2. This section lists the computer commands required to make a first run for MP2 using a different example. To illustrate these computer commands, suppose we wish to explain the annual crop of pigs (y) on Old MacDonald's farm for the last 40 years. The independent variables are the number of sows (x1) and the number of boars (x2) in residence that year, and tons of food purchased for pig consumption during the year (x3). In addition, we include two dummy variables: whether MacDonald used a temperature control system for the barn (x4), and whether spring came early or late that year, measured by the groundhog factor (x5).

Assuming the y-xi relationships are linear, we may write the population regression model as:
3) y = a + b1x1 + b2x2 + b3x3+ b4x4 + b5x5 + e.

The first run will estimate this model using 40 observations. Once you have logged on, you must erase the data file containing the MP1 data, create a new data file for 40 lines of data and enter the data into it. Next, you must change the SAS program to fit the problem for MP2. This entails changing the INPUT line and the fields, changing the MODEL line, and adding the PROC PLOT lines. Finally, the MP2 SAS program is run on the MP2 data, a file containing a listing of the regression results is checked and a hard copy is made. Note that the variables in this program are the ones used in the example above. You will of course replace these with your own variables.

For the second run, drop the variables which are insignificant or of the wrong sign and run the regression again. The computer procedures for this entail logging on, changing the model line and deleting all the plot commands in the MP2 SAS program file, running the modified MP2 SAS program on the MP2 data, checking the file which lists the results of the regression, and printing it. For the MP2 second run, apply the procedure outlined for the second run of MP1.